The country’s temperature and rainfall are expected to increase by 2040, compared to the current climatic conditions. This was revealed during the launch of the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology’s Climate Change Projection Report 2024, yesterday. The NCHM attributes these changes to global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions.
The report indicates that the north, west, north-west, and south-western regions of the country will experience the highest increase in temperature and annual rainfall by 2040.
The NCHM said that these changes are likely to cause floods and other natural disasters in these regions.
And by 2060, east and south-east regions are likely to receive less rainfall, raising concerns about potential droughts.
The long-term projection also predicts that during the same period, night temperature is likely to rise sharply than day temperature as compared to current records.
The temperature rise is expected to accelerate glacial melt. This will also slow down glacial accumulation.
Officials from the NCHM said that the report will guide ministries and other sectors in developing mitigation and adaptation policies.
“The report serves as a guideline to build adaptive measures in response to climate change. For instance, the agriculture ministry can plan, which crops to plant and when to harvest. We can also install improved equipment for early warning systems to avoid floods and other hazards,” said Ugyen Chophel, deputy chief at Meteorological Services Division, NCHM.
The report suggests that the level of the surge in temperature and rainfall can be controlled if the country adopts measures such as reducing fossil fuel consumption, managing population growth, limiting developmental activities, and increasing the use of electric vehicles.
“It is important to understand that this is an estimated projection and not an accurate forecast. Unlike daily weather forecasts, this report predicts climate variations over decades. People should not be alarmed, but should be prepared for the increased warming impacts,” added Ugyen Chophel, deputy chief at Meteorological Services Division, NCHM.
Historical data from the NCHM shows that both temperature and rainfall in the country have been on the rise since 1960.
However, the increase in temperature has been sharper in the recent decades since 1991.
The report was developed using inputs from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report.
According to the NCHM’s data, last year, the country’s annual average rainfall was about 1,800 millimetres.
The annual average maximum temperature was a little over 23 degrees Celsius and the minimum average temperature was about 12 degrees Celsius.
Namgay Dema
Edited by Kipchu
